Market Creator

An autonomous service built on the Open Autonomy framework that creates and manages prediction markets on Omen (Gnosis Chain), using recent news evaluated by an LLM Mech oracle.

It is the sibling of market-resolver, which handles the resolution side; the two share the same fund-recovery sub-skills.

What it does

Each cycle the agent runs an ABCI FSM that:

• Funds the safe -- wraps xDAI into wxDAI (DepositDai) for market liquidity.
• Assesses demand -- CollectProposedMarkets computes how many markets are still needed per upcoming opening day (target MARKETS_TO_APPROVE_PER_DAY over APPROVE_MARKET_EVENT_DAYS_OFFSET days), subject to throttles and a funding guard.
• Generates questions via Mech -- RequestProposedQuestions calls the propose-question Mech tool to turn current news into candidate questions, which are pushed to an external market approval server.
• Creates markets on-chain -- RetrieveApprovedMarket pulls an approved market and CreateMarketTx builds a single multisend: FPMM deployment (FPMMDeterministicFactory) + initial liquidity + Realitio question.
• Recovers locked funds -- removes LP from expired markets, redeems winning conditional tokens, and reclaims Realitio bonds (three dedicated sub-skills, shared with market-resolver).

Architecture

market_maker_abci is a composed ABCI app: it chains one repo-owned skill (market_creation_manager_abci, the core logic) with several third-party sub-apps (registration, fund recovery, Mech, transaction settlement, reset/pause). Any step that goes on-chain routes through the shared TransactionSettlement + PostTransaction multiplexer; question generation is delegated to a MechInteract request.

stateDiagram-v2
  direction TB

  classDef dev fill:#e1f5ee,stroke:#0f6e56,color:#04342c
  classDef tp  fill:#e6f1fb,stroke:#185fa5,color:#042c53

  [*] --> Reg

  state "AgentRegistration" as Reg
  state "IdentifyServiceOwner" as Ident
  state "FundsForwarder" as Funds
  state "OmenFpmmRemoveLiquidity (recovery 1)" as RemLiq
  state "OmenCtRedeemTokens (recovery 2)" as Redeem
  state "OmenRealitioWithdrawBonds (recovery 3)" as Bonds
  state "ResetAndPause" as Reset
  state "MechInteract (propose-question oracle)" as Mech

  state "MarketCreationManager (dev)" as MCM {
    state "DepositDai (wrap xDAI)" as Deposit
    state "CollectRandomness" as Rand
    state "SelectKeeper" as Keeper
    state "CollectProposedMarkets" as Propose
    state "RequestProposedQuestions" as Request
    state "ProcessProposedQuestions" as Process
    state "RetrieveApprovedMarket" as Retrieve
    state "CreateMarketTx" as Create

    Deposit --> Rand: DEPOSIT_DAI_DONE (via TxSettlement + PostTransaction)
    Rand --> Keeper: DONE
    Keeper --> Propose: DONE
    Propose --> Request: DONE
    Propose --> Retrieve: SKIP_MARKET_APPROVAL
    Process --> Retrieve: DONE
    Retrieve --> Create: DONE
  }

  Reg --> Ident
  Ident --> Funds
  Ident --> RemLiq: on error
  Funds --> RemLiq
  RemLiq --> Redeem
  Redeem --> Bonds
  Bonds --> Deposit
  Reset --> Ident: next period
  Reset --> Reg: on error

  Request --> Mech: MECH_REQUEST_DONE
  Mech --> Process: response delivered
  Mech --> Reset: skip / timeout

  Propose --> Reset: INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS
  Retrieve --> Reset: NO_MARKETS_RETRIEVED
  Create --> Reset: DONE (via TxSettlement + PostTransaction)

  class MCM dev
  class Reg,Ident,Funds,RemLiq,Redeem,Bonds,Reset,Mech tp

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Key design decisions

• Question generation runs in the Mech, not the agent. The service only sends a propose-question request via mech_interact_abci; the OpenAI / NewsAPI / Serper keys it needs live on the Mech, not on this service. Operator params (TOPICS, NEWS_SOURCES, num_questions) travel as Mech extra_attributes.
• Approval-server indirection. Generated questions are pushed to an external approval server; only approved markets are created on-chain, so markets can be gated before funds are committed.
• Shared recovery chain. LP removal, CT redemption and bond withdrawal reuse the same sub-skills as market-resolver.

Prepare the environment

• System requirements:
  • Python >=3.10, <3.15
  • Tendermint ==0.34.19
  • uv
  • Docker Engine + Docker Compose

git clone https://github.com/valory-xyz/market-creator.git
cd market-creator
uv sync --all-groups
source .venv/bin/activate
autonomy init --reset --author valory --remote --ipfs --ipfs-node "/dns/registry.autonolas.tech/tcp/443/https"
autonomy packages sync --update-packages

You also need a Gnosis keypair (keys.json) and a Safe; register the service on the OLAS registry (canonical agent id 12) or use your own Safe.

Configuration

Defaults live in service.yaml; every variable below is an env override. Note the LLM/news/search API keys are configured on the Mech, not here.

Variable	Purpose
ALL_PARTICIPANTS	JSON list of agent EOAs in the service.
SAFE_CONTRACT_ADDRESS	Gnosis Safe multisig controlled by the agents.
GNOSIS_LEDGER_RPC	Gnosis RPC endpoint (use a private one in production).
ON_CHAIN_SERVICE_ID	Olas registry service id.
SUBGRAPH_API_KEY	The Graph key for the Omen/Realitio subgraphs.
MARKET_APPROVAL_SERVER_URL / MARKET_APPROVAL_SERVER_API_KEY	Approval-server endpoint and key (server reachable from the agent).
MARKETS_TO_APPROVE_PER_DAY	Target number of markets per opening day.
APPROVE_MARKET_EVENT_DAYS_OFFSET	How far ahead markets are opened (days).
TOPICS / NEWS_SOURCES	News topics / sources, forwarded to the Mech tool.
MAX_MARKETS_PER_STORY	Upper bound on num_questions requested per Mech call.
INITIAL_FUNDS	Initial wxDAI liquidity per market (the funding the guard checks against).
MARKET_FEE	FPMM LP fee, percent.
MARKET_TIMEOUT	Realitio answer window, days.
COLLATERAL_TOKEN_CONTRACT	Collateral token (default WxDAI).

Market approval server

The service proposes markets to a separate approval server before creating them on-chain (market_approval_server/):

echo -n "your_api_key" | sha256sum   # hash goes into the config under "api_keys"
# create market_approval_server/server_config.json with empty market maps + the hash
python market_approval_server/market_approval_server.py   # serves on :5000

Run the service

# Docker deployment
autonomy fetch --local --service valory/market_maker && cd market_maker
autonomy build-image
cp /path/to/keys.json .
autonomy deploy build --n 1 -ltm
autonomy deploy run --build-dir abci_build/

# or, local agent (development) -- requires `pip install open-aea-helpers` and a .env
aea-helpers run-service --name valory/market_maker --env-file .env

Development

After editing anything under packages/:

1. Format + lint — make formatters, then make code-checks (black, isort, flake8, mypy, pylint, darglint).

2. FSM changes — keep the Event enum, rounds.py, fsm_specification.yaml, and tests in sync, then regenerate the specs + docstrings:

   autonomy analyse fsm-specs --update --package packages/valory/skills/market_creation_manager_abci
   autonomy analyse fsm-specs --update --package packages/valory/skills/market_maker_abci
   autonomy analyse docstrings --update

3. Lock package hashes — autonomy packages lock.

4. Tests (100% statement + branch coverage enforced) — tomte tox -e py3.11-linux.

Third-party dependencies

Synced from IPFS via autonomy packages sync (not committed to git):

Repository	Provides
open-autonomy	abstract_round_abci, registration, transaction_settlement, reset_pause, termination
open-aea	protocols, connections, base contracts (gnosis_safe, multisend, service_registry)
mech-interact	mech_interact_abci skill, mech / mech_mm / ierc1155 contracts
omen-protocol	realitio, realitio_proxy, conditional_tokens, fpmm contracts; the LP-removal / CT-redeem / bond-withdrawal recovery skills
genai	GenAI / NVM subscription packages

Further reading

• CONTRIBUTING.md — development workflow and conventions
• SECURITY.md — security policy
• Reference service: valory-xyz/trader; sibling resolver: valory-xyz/market-resolver

License

Apache License 2.0