feat(permanence): reversal-risk view over the disturbance-exposed reserve scenarios#75
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feat(permanence): reversal-risk view over the disturbance-exposed reserve scenarios#75holoros wants to merge 1 commit into
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… scenarios New 'Permanence / risk' tab. Contrasts the passive no-harvest reserve against the disturbance-exposed and mortality-stressed reserve buckets already shipped in the v1.4 API, as the cross-engine ensemble median. Surfaces per-state reversal-risk: end-of-horizon shortfall vs the passive reserve, peak-to-end drawdown (does the reserve become a net source), a graduated risk verdict, scorecards, and a gap-shaded trajectory chart. Directly addresses the dimension single-model reversal tools center on, but on PERSEUS's multi-model footing. Data already present (ME/GA/IN/MN + focal states); graceful empty state where the buckets are absent. Build verified; reversal math sanity-checked against ME/GA/IN.
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What
Adds a Permanence / risk tab that answers the question single-model reversal tools (e.g. the Wilkes carbon-reversal-risk tool) center on — how durable is stored carbon under elevated disturbance? — but on PERSEUS's multi-model footing.
It reuses data already in the API (the
reserve (no harvest, disturbance-exposed)andreserve (no harvest, mortality-stressed)buckets from v1.4), so no new modeling or data is introduced. For the selected state it computes the cross-engine ensemble median of each reserve scenario and surfaces:Why
This is the one decision dimension no competitor matches with a multi-model ensemble, and per the v1.4 changelog the underlying scenarios are already grounded (FIA COND + GRM, historical / 2x / 3x disturbance). Sanity check on the ensemble medians: ME passive 568 Tg → −66% disturbance-exposed; GA −48%; IN −84%.
Scope / risk
src/PermanenceRisk.jsx(self-contained, dependency-free SVG, mirrors GrowthChart patterns) + 4 wiring lines inApp.jsx(import, tab, disabled rule, render).npm run buildpasses.Follow-up (not in this PR)
A CONUS choropleth of the reversal-risk metric would need all-state series loading; scoped as a next increment to keep this reviewable.
Opened for review — not auto-merged.