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Olist Brazilian E-Commerce — Does Late Delivery Kill Repeat Customers?

An end-to-end data analysis project — Excel → SQL Server → Power BI investigating whether delivery delays are quietly reducing Olist's repeat-purchase rate, and which regions need operational attention first.

Full write-up: Analysis Report · Dashboard: olist_dashboard.pbix · Portfolio: ayeshaforger.github.io


The Question

Olist's business executives wanted to know: is the platform's low repeat-purchase rate connected to delivery delays, and if so, where should operational improvements be prioritized to protect revenue and retention?

The Headline Finding

Customers whose first order arrived late had a 2.50% repeat-purchase rate, vs 3.06% for on-time or early deliveries, an 18.3% relative retention penalty tied directly to a customer's first delivery experience.

Five high-revenue Northeastern states (AL, MA, SE, PI, CE) show late-delivery rates as high as 21%, sit at the bottom of the retention rankings, and together represent $680K+ in revenue at risk.

Baseline metrics (delivered orders only): $15.42M total revenue · 96,470 delivered orders · 6.77% late-delivery rate · 3.00% overall repeat-purchase rate.

Dashboard Preview

| Executive Overview -> Page 1
| Regional Logistics -> Page 2
| Retention Impact -> Page 3

How It Was Built

Phase Tool What Happened
1–2 Excel Initial exploration and structural audit of the raw Olist dataset
3 SQL Server 8 non-destructive cleaning views built over the raw tables with anomalies flagged, never deleted, and logged in a 19-entry Data Cleaning Log
4 SQL Server Exploratory analysis: cohort-based repeat-purchase analysis (ROW_NUMBER()-ranked first orders, HAVING COUNT(*) >= 300 sample-size guard) to isolate the delivery $\rightarrow$ retention relationship
5 Power BI / DAX Lean two-table star model (vw_fact_orders + a DAX-built dim_date), with a planned inactive relationship + USERELATIONSHIP() for delivery-date time intelligence
6 Power BI 3-page executive dashboard translating the SQL findings into a decision-ready story

Full methodology, findings, and scope decisions are in the report.


Repo Structure

olist-ecommerce-analysis/
├── README.md
├── LICENSE
├── .gitignore
├── report/
│   ├── olist_analysis_report.md
│   └── olist_analysis_report.pdf
├── sql/
│   ├── 00_data_audit.sql
│   ├── 01_data_cleaning.sql
│   ├── 02_eda_analysis.sql
│   └── vw_fact_orders.sql
├── documentation/
│   └── olist_data_cleaning_log.xlsx
├── power_bi/
│   ├── olist_dashboard.pbix
│   └── screenshots/
└── data/
    └── README.md

Tech Stack

SQL Server Power BI DAX Excel Power Query

Scope Notes

Product, seller, and customer-satisfaction dimensions were deliberately excluded from the data model. This was a locked scope decision, not an oversight, made to keep the analysis focused on the delivery → retention question the business asked. Details and the reasoning are in the report.

Author

Ayesha Muqadas CS undergraduate, Data Analyst LinkedIn · GitHub · Portfolio

About

End-to-end data analysis investigating the impact of delivery delays on customer retention for Olist e-commerce using Excel, SQL Server, and Power BI.

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