waymo_dc_market_pack.json

{
  "title": "Waymo DC public-service gate and aggregate 2027 safety market drafts",
  "source": "waymo-dc-test-case",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-15T00:00:00",
  "provider": "manifold",
  "warning": "Markets have been created on Manifold; use created_market_url for the live markets.",
  "external_gate_market": {
    "question": "Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?",
    "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in",
    "embed_id": "2805EAudc2",
    "embed_label": "/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in",
    "observed_probability": 71.6,
    "observed_at": "2026-04-15"
  },
  "markets": [
    {
      "question": "If Waymo serves DC before 2027, how many traffic fatalities will DC record in 2027?",
      "outcome_type": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
      "description_markdown": "## Context\nThis market forecasts DC's aggregate road-safety outcome in 2027 conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving YES. DC's tracked safety metrics include traffic fatalities, serious injuries, fatalities per vehicle mile traveled, pedestrian fatalities, bicyclist fatalities, and pedestrian/bicyclist injuries. This draft uses total traffic fatalities as the primary high-salience outcome.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves NO or N/A. If that market resolves YES, resolve to the number of traffic fatalities in DC during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Vision Zero, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Highway Safety Plan data. If sources differ, prefer the finalized DC Vision Zero/DDOT value; if unavailable by the resolution date target, use the latest official DC government or FARS value available and document the source used.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [Waymo: Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.](https://waymo.com/blog/2025/03/next-stop-for-waymo-one-washingtondc/)\n- [MPD Traffic Data](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/traffic-data)\n- [DC Vision Zero Traffic Fatalities and Injury Crashes](https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/district-of-columbia-vision-zero-traffic-fatalities-and-injury-crashes)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 39\n- Rationale: MPD reports 52 traffic fatalities in both 2023 and 2024, 25 in 2025, and 15 YTD as of 2026-04-14. A 2027 baseline around 40 balances the recent spike, the 2025 drop, and the elevated 2026 YTD pace. Waymo's first DC year is likely too small to move citywide fatalities by more than about one expected death, and the NO-gate world can still include a 2027 launch.",
      "close_date": "2027-12-31",
      "visibility": "unlisted",
      "initial_probability": null,
      "min_value": 15,
      "max_value": 70,
      "initial_value": 39,
      "is_log_scale": false,
      "tags": [
        "waymo",
        "dc",
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "safety",
        "traffic-fatalities"
      ],
      "resolution_date": "2028-03-31",
      "resolution_rule": "Resolve N/A if the linked Manifold market `Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?` resolves NO or N/A. If that market resolves YES, resolve to the number of traffic fatalities in DC during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Vision Zero, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Highway Safety Plan data. If sources differ, prefer the finalized DC Vision Zero/DDOT value; if unavailable by the resolution date target, use the latest official DC government or FARS value available and document the source used.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?",
          "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in"
        },
        {
          "title": "Waymo: Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.",
          "url": "https://waymo.com/blog/2025/03/next-stop-for-waymo-one-washingtondc/"
        },
        {
          "title": "MPD Traffic Data",
          "url": "https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/traffic-data"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC Vision Zero Traffic Fatalities and Injury Crashes",
          "url": "https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/district-of-columbia-vision-zero-traffic-fatalities-and-injury-crashes"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan",
          "url": "https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "source_forecast": {
        "point_estimate": 39,
        "ci_low": null,
        "ci_high": null,
        "confidence_level": 0.8,
        "rationale": "MPD reports 52 traffic fatalities in both 2023 and 2024, 25 in 2025, and 15 YTD as of 2026-04-14. A 2027 baseline around 40 balances the recent spike, the 2025 drop, and the elevated 2026 YTD pace. Waymo's first DC year is likely too small to move citywide fatalities by more than about one expected death, and the NO-gate world can still include a 2027 launch."
      },
      "notes": [
        "This market estimates aggregate DC safety, not Waymo crash involvement.",
        "Pair with the linked-gate NO conditional market to compare expected citywide outcomes."
      ],
      "manifold_payload": {
        "outcomeType": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
        "question": "If Waymo serves DC before 2027, how many traffic fatalities will DC record in 2027?",
        "descriptionMarkdown": "## Context\nThis market forecasts DC's aggregate road-safety outcome in 2027 conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving YES. DC's tracked safety metrics include traffic fatalities, serious injuries, fatalities per vehicle mile traveled, pedestrian fatalities, bicyclist fatalities, and pedestrian/bicyclist injuries. This draft uses total traffic fatalities as the primary high-salience outcome.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves NO or N/A. If that market resolves YES, resolve to the number of traffic fatalities in DC during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Vision Zero, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Highway Safety Plan data. If sources differ, prefer the finalized DC Vision Zero/DDOT value; if unavailable by the resolution date target, use the latest official DC government or FARS value available and document the source used.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [Waymo: Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.](https://waymo.com/blog/2025/03/next-stop-for-waymo-one-washingtondc/)\n- [MPD Traffic Data](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/traffic-data)\n- [DC Vision Zero Traffic Fatalities and Injury Crashes](https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/district-of-columbia-vision-zero-traffic-fatalities-and-injury-crashes)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 39\n- Rationale: MPD reports 52 traffic fatalities in both 2023 and 2024, 25 in 2025, and 15 YTD as of 2026-04-14. A 2027 baseline around 40 balances the recent spike, the 2025 drop, and the elevated 2026 YTD pace. Waymo's first DC year is likely too small to move citywide fatalities by more than about one expected death, and the NO-gate world can still include a 2027 launch.",
        "closeTime": 1830229200000,
        "visibility": "unlisted",
        "min": 15,
        "max": 70,
        "initialValue": 39,
        "isLogScale": false
      },
      "created_market_id": "hCPh8z6uty",
      "created_market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxGhenis/if-waymo-serves-dc-before-2027-how",
      "created_at": "2026-04-15T09:32:18-0400"
    },
    {
      "question": "If Waymo does not serve DC before 2027, how many traffic fatalities will DC record in 2027?",
      "outcome_type": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
      "description_markdown": "## Context\nThis market forecasts DC's aggregate road-safety outcome in 2027 conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving NO. It is the counterpart to the YES-conditional traffic-fatalities market.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves YES or N/A. If that market resolves NO, resolve to the number of traffic fatalities in DC during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Vision Zero, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Highway Safety Plan data. If sources differ, prefer the finalized DC Vision Zero/DDOT value; if unavailable by the resolution date target, use the latest official DC government or FARS value available and document the source used.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [MPD Traffic Data](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/traffic-data)\n- [DC Vision Zero Traffic Fatalities and Injury Crashes](https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/district-of-columbia-vision-zero-traffic-fatalities-and-injury-crashes)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 40\n- Rationale: MPD reports 52 traffic fatalities in both 2023 and 2024, 25 in 2025, and 15 YTD as of 2026-04-14. The NO-gate condition is not a no-Waymo-in-2027 condition; Waymo could still launch during 2027. This seed therefore stays close to the YES-gate seed, with only a small expected safety difference from a later or smaller deployment.",
      "close_date": "2027-12-31",
      "visibility": "unlisted",
      "initial_probability": null,
      "min_value": 15,
      "max_value": 70,
      "initial_value": 40,
      "is_log_scale": false,
      "tags": [
        "waymo",
        "dc",
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "safety",
        "traffic-fatalities"
      ],
      "resolution_date": "2028-03-31",
      "resolution_rule": "Resolve N/A if the linked Manifold market `Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?` resolves YES or N/A. If that market resolves NO, resolve to the number of traffic fatalities in DC during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Vision Zero, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Highway Safety Plan data. If sources differ, prefer the finalized DC Vision Zero/DDOT value; if unavailable by the resolution date target, use the latest official DC government or FARS value available and document the source used.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?",
          "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in"
        },
        {
          "title": "MPD Traffic Data",
          "url": "https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/traffic-data"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC Vision Zero Traffic Fatalities and Injury Crashes",
          "url": "https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/district-of-columbia-vision-zero-traffic-fatalities-and-injury-crashes"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan",
          "url": "https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "source_forecast": {
        "point_estimate": 40,
        "ci_low": null,
        "ci_high": null,
        "confidence_level": 0.8,
        "rationale": "MPD reports 52 traffic fatalities in both 2023 and 2024, 25 in 2025, and 15 YTD as of 2026-04-14. The NO-gate condition is not a no-Waymo-in-2027 condition; Waymo could still launch during 2027. This seed therefore stays close to the YES-gate seed, with only a small expected safety difference from a later or smaller deployment."
      },
      "notes": [
        "This market estimates aggregate DC safety, not Waymo crash involvement.",
        "Pair with the linked-gate YES conditional market to compare expected citywide outcomes."
      ],
      "manifold_payload": {
        "outcomeType": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
        "question": "If Waymo does not serve DC before 2027, how many traffic fatalities will DC record in 2027?",
        "descriptionMarkdown": "## Context\nThis market forecasts DC's aggregate road-safety outcome in 2027 conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving NO. It is the counterpart to the YES-conditional traffic-fatalities market.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves YES or N/A. If that market resolves NO, resolve to the number of traffic fatalities in DC during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Vision Zero, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Highway Safety Plan data. If sources differ, prefer the finalized DC Vision Zero/DDOT value; if unavailable by the resolution date target, use the latest official DC government or FARS value available and document the source used.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [MPD Traffic Data](https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/traffic-data)\n- [DC Vision Zero Traffic Fatalities and Injury Crashes](https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/district-of-columbia-vision-zero-traffic-fatalities-and-injury-crashes)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 40\n- Rationale: MPD reports 52 traffic fatalities in both 2023 and 2024, 25 in 2025, and 15 YTD as of 2026-04-14. The NO-gate condition is not a no-Waymo-in-2027 condition; Waymo could still launch during 2027. This seed therefore stays close to the YES-gate seed, with only a small expected safety difference from a later or smaller deployment.",
        "closeTime": 1830229200000,
        "visibility": "unlisted",
        "min": 15,
        "max": 70,
        "initialValue": 40,
        "isLogScale": false
      },
      "created_market_id": "OyOqhgdRlt",
      "created_market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxGhenis/if-waymo-does-not-serve-dc-before-2",
      "created_at": "2026-04-15T09:32:18-0400"
    },
    {
      "question": "If Waymo serves DC before 2027, how many serious traffic-crash injuries will DC record in 2027?",
      "outcome_type": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
      "description_markdown": "## Context\nTraffic fatalities are highly salient but noisy. Serious injuries are a broader aggregate safety metric that DC uses in highway safety planning and crash reporting. This market forecasts DC's 2027 serious-injury count conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving YES.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves NO or N/A. If that market resolves YES, resolve to the number of serious injuries in DC traffic crashes during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Highway Safety Plan, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Vision Zero data. If the source labels the metric as major injuries or KABCO A injuries, use that official serious-injury-equivalent count.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [Waymo: Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.](https://waymo.com/blog/2025/03/next-stop-for-waymo-one-washingtondc/)\n- [DC Crashes in DC metadata](https://opendata.dc.gov/documents/DCGIS::crashes-in-dc/about)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 290\n- Rationale: DC's crash data major-injury series has fallen from 467 in 2017 and 447 in 2019 to 345 in 2024 and 306 in 2025. The 2026 YTD count through mid-April is close to 2025's YTD pace, suggesting a high-200s to low-300s 2027 baseline. Waymo's per-mile safety evidence is strong, but first-year DC scale is likely small relative to citywide VMT, so the aggregate effect is only a few serious injuries.",
      "close_date": "2027-12-31",
      "visibility": "unlisted",
      "initial_probability": null,
      "min_value": 180,
      "max_value": 500,
      "initial_value": 290,
      "is_log_scale": false,
      "tags": [
        "waymo",
        "dc",
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "safety",
        "serious-injuries"
      ],
      "resolution_date": "2028-03-31",
      "resolution_rule": "Resolve N/A if the linked Manifold market `Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?` resolves NO or N/A. If that market resolves YES, resolve to the number of serious injuries in DC traffic crashes during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Highway Safety Plan, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Vision Zero data. If the source labels the metric as major injuries or KABCO A injuries, use that official serious-injury-equivalent count.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?",
          "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in"
        },
        {
          "title": "Waymo: Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.",
          "url": "https://waymo.com/blog/2025/03/next-stop-for-waymo-one-washingtondc/"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC Crashes in DC metadata",
          "url": "https://opendata.dc.gov/documents/DCGIS::crashes-in-dc/about"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan",
          "url": "https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "source_forecast": {
        "point_estimate": 290,
        "ci_low": null,
        "ci_high": null,
        "confidence_level": 0.8,
        "rationale": "DC's crash data major-injury series has fallen from 467 in 2017 and 447 in 2019 to 345 in 2024 and 306 in 2025. The 2026 YTD count through mid-April is close to 2025's YTD pace, suggesting a high-200s to low-300s 2027 baseline. Waymo's per-mile safety evidence is strong, but first-year DC scale is likely small relative to citywide VMT, so the aggregate effect is only a few serious injuries."
      },
      "notes": [
        "This market estimates aggregate DC safety, not Waymo crash involvement.",
        "Use the same official serious-injury definition across both conditional markets."
      ],
      "manifold_payload": {
        "outcomeType": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
        "question": "If Waymo serves DC before 2027, how many serious traffic-crash injuries will DC record in 2027?",
        "descriptionMarkdown": "## Context\nTraffic fatalities are highly salient but noisy. Serious injuries are a broader aggregate safety metric that DC uses in highway safety planning and crash reporting. This market forecasts DC's 2027 serious-injury count conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving YES.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves NO or N/A. If that market resolves YES, resolve to the number of serious injuries in DC traffic crashes during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Highway Safety Plan, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Vision Zero data. If the source labels the metric as major injuries or KABCO A injuries, use that official serious-injury-equivalent count.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [Waymo: Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.](https://waymo.com/blog/2025/03/next-stop-for-waymo-one-washingtondc/)\n- [DC Crashes in DC metadata](https://opendata.dc.gov/documents/DCGIS::crashes-in-dc/about)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 290\n- Rationale: DC's crash data major-injury series has fallen from 467 in 2017 and 447 in 2019 to 345 in 2024 and 306 in 2025. The 2026 YTD count through mid-April is close to 2025's YTD pace, suggesting a high-200s to low-300s 2027 baseline. Waymo's per-mile safety evidence is strong, but first-year DC scale is likely small relative to citywide VMT, so the aggregate effect is only a few serious injuries.",
        "closeTime": 1830229200000,
        "visibility": "unlisted",
        "min": 180,
        "max": 500,
        "initialValue": 290,
        "isLogScale": false
      },
      "created_market_id": "CAhpLP8NqU",
      "created_market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxGhenis/if-waymo-serves-dc-before-2027-how-hUglCRuRq8",
      "created_at": "2026-04-15T09:32:18-0400"
    },
    {
      "question": "If Waymo does not serve DC before 2027, how many serious traffic-crash injuries will DC record in 2027?",
      "outcome_type": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
      "description_markdown": "## Context\nThis market forecasts DC's aggregate road-safety outcome in 2027 conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving NO. It is the serious-injury counterpart to the YES-conditional market.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves YES or N/A. If that market resolves NO, resolve to the number of serious injuries in DC traffic crashes during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Highway Safety Plan, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Vision Zero data. If the source labels the metric as major injuries or KABCO A injuries, use that official serious-injury-equivalent count.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [DC Crashes in DC metadata](https://opendata.dc.gov/documents/DCGIS::crashes-in-dc/about)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 295\n- Rationale: DC's crash data major-injury series has fallen from 467 in 2017 and 447 in 2019 to 345 in 2024 and 306 in 2025. The NO-gate condition can still include a 2027 Waymo launch, so the difference from the YES-gate case should be small. This seed is slightly higher because a failed pre-2027 launch implies less 2027 Waymo exposure on average.",
      "close_date": "2027-12-31",
      "visibility": "unlisted",
      "initial_probability": null,
      "min_value": 180,
      "max_value": 500,
      "initial_value": 295,
      "is_log_scale": false,
      "tags": [
        "waymo",
        "dc",
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "safety",
        "serious-injuries"
      ],
      "resolution_date": "2028-03-31",
      "resolution_rule": "Resolve N/A if the linked Manifold market `Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?` resolves YES or N/A. If that market resolves NO, resolve to the number of serious injuries in DC traffic crashes during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Highway Safety Plan, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Vision Zero data. If the source labels the metric as major injuries or KABCO A injuries, use that official serious-injury-equivalent count.",
      "sources": [
        {
          "title": "Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?",
          "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC Crashes in DC metadata",
          "url": "https://opendata.dc.gov/documents/DCGIS::crashes-in-dc/about"
        },
        {
          "title": "DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan",
          "url": "https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "source_forecast": {
        "point_estimate": 295,
        "ci_low": null,
        "ci_high": null,
        "confidence_level": 0.8,
        "rationale": "DC's crash data major-injury series has fallen from 467 in 2017 and 447 in 2019 to 345 in 2024 and 306 in 2025. The NO-gate condition can still include a 2027 Waymo launch, so the difference from the YES-gate case should be small. This seed is slightly higher because a failed pre-2027 launch implies less 2027 Waymo exposure on average."
      },
      "notes": [
        "This market estimates aggregate DC safety, not Waymo crash involvement.",
        "Use the same official serious-injury definition across both conditional markets."
      ],
      "manifold_payload": {
        "outcomeType": "PSEUDO_NUMERIC",
        "question": "If Waymo does not serve DC before 2027, how many serious traffic-crash injuries will DC record in 2027?",
        "descriptionMarkdown": "## Context\nThis market forecasts DC's aggregate road-safety outcome in 2027 conditional on the existing Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolving NO. It is the serious-injury counterpart to the YES-conditional market.\n\n## Trigger market\nThis market is conditional on the embedded Manifold market below.\n\n@/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in\n\n## Resolution\nResolve N/A if the linked Manifold market [Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in) resolves YES or N/A. If that market resolves NO, resolve to the number of serious injuries in DC traffic crashes during calendar year 2027 according to finalized official DC Highway Safety Plan, DDOT, MPD, FARS, or DC Vision Zero data. If the source labels the metric as major injuries or KABCO A injuries, use that official serious-injury-equivalent count.\n\nResolution date target: 2028-03-31\n\n## Sources\n- [Manifold: Waymo serves the general public in Washington, D.C. before 2027?](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/waymo-serves-the-general-public-in)\n- [DC Crashes in DC metadata](https://opendata.dc.gov/documents/DCGIS::crashes-in-dc/about)\n- [DC FY24-26 Highway Safety Plan](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-01/DC_FY24-26HSP-tag.pdf)\n\n## Seed forecast\n- Point estimate: 295\n- Rationale: DC's crash data major-injury series has fallen from 467 in 2017 and 447 in 2019 to 345 in 2024 and 306 in 2025. The NO-gate condition can still include a 2027 Waymo launch, so the difference from the YES-gate case should be small. This seed is slightly higher because a failed pre-2027 launch implies less 2027 Waymo exposure on average.",
        "closeTime": 1830229200000,
        "visibility": "unlisted",
        "min": 180,
        "max": 500,
        "initialValue": 295,
        "isLogScale": false
      },
      "created_market_id": "nhcPgzNcIS",
      "created_market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxGhenis/if-waymo-does-not-serve-dc-before-2-t8StNlcEEy",
      "created_at": "2026-04-15T09:32:18-0400"
    }
  ]
}